| 'Sport fusion' shoes
are hot - They're kicking up companies' sales Yesterday: retro-styled
Converse tennies.
Today: urban trail shoes, flip-flops and Crocs.
Nothing stands still in the footwear industry -- and in the last
18 months, non-athletic shoe styles have gained popularity, said
Mitch Kummetz, senior research analyst in Robert W. Baird &
Co.'s Colorado office.
To a Wall Street type like Kummetz, that means one thing: new opportunities
for certain companies and their investors.
"The companies that have done the best are brown shoe companies.
Nike and Adidas don't do a wonderful job with this 'sport fusion'
category, but Diesel and Steven Madden and Skechers do," Kummetz
said.
Total U.S. footwear sales were $42 billion in 2005, up 9% from
2004, according to NPD Group, a market research firm. Sales of non-athletic
footwear represented nearly 70% of that total, and were up 10.1%,
compared with a rise of 4.5% for athletic footwear sales, according
to the NPD data.
Kummetz says the category he calls "sport fusion" is
one of the hottest in the non-athletic segment.
These shoes typically have an athletic silhouette but come in non-athletic
colors like brown, gray -- even red and green -- and different materials
like suede or Gore-Tex.
Sandals -- from sport sandals to flip-flops, both in a range of
new styles -- also have been gaining popularity, with their sales
rising 13.8% in the 12 months ended in June 2006, according to NPD.
"The flip-flop business has evolved from being a $1.99 purchase
at Walgreens to the point where leather flip-flops are selling for
$40 or $50," Kummetz said.
A number of companies are benefiting from these trends, including
Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK, $57.16), Skechers U.S.A. Inc. (SKX,
$32.53), Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO, $36.06), Timberland Co. (TBL,
$30.51) and Wolverine World Wide Inc. (WWW, $27.78).
Another such company, Ninot, Colo.-based Crocs Inc. (CROX, $43.68)
is also benefiting after having single-handedly created a whole
new category. Crocs, whose shoes have the same name, makes lightweight,
clog-like shoes that are formed from closed-cell resin material
and come in lavender, lime green and a wide variety of other colors.
Kummetz is familiar with all of these companies.
"I cover a slew of non-athletic footwear companies, but the
one I'm most excited about these days is Wolverine," he said.
Wolverine, based in Rockford, Mich., is best-known for its Wolverine
boots and Hush Puppies shoes. What's driving the company's performance
now, though, is its Merrill brand.
Wolverine has grown Merrill to what Kummetz estimates is a $360
million business, from $20 million 10 years ago when the company
acquired what was essentially a hiking boot brand.
"They've done a phenomenal job broadening it and really developing
the rugged casual category to turn it into a casual footwear brand,"
he said.
Merrill brand sales have grown by 18% in each of the last two years,
and the brand now represents nearly one-third of Wolverine's revenue,
Kummetz said. At an analysts' event in New York in December, the
company talked about its hopes for building Merrill into a $1 billion
business, he said.
He thinks a big part of that growth will come from a new Merrill
sports apparel line the company plans to launch next fall.
Wolverine has licensed the name Patagonia from the private company
of the same name and will use it for a footwear line. The company
will launch Patagonia footwear in spring. This line will likely
be a $10 million-to-$12 million business, but Wolverine views it
as an opportunity to produce $50 million to $100 million of annual
sales over time, Kummetz said.
Wolverine has also done a good job of improving the profitability
of its Hush Puppies business by giving it more contemporary styling
and selling it at higher prices through higher-end stores, Kummetz
said. The company also sells licensed footwear with the Caterpillar
and Harley-Davidson brands.
The biggest risk Kummetz associates with this stock is the possibility
its styles could fall out of favor, but Wolverine has a much more
robust mix than many of its competitors, he said. There's also the
possibility the company's business could be hurt by greater competition,
particularly if more companies move into the popular non-athletic
category, he said.
Kummetz has his highest "outperform" rating on Wolverine
shares, and says they could go as high as $35 in the next 12 months.
|